Tuesday, June 14, 2011

Food, energy costs to keep inflation at two-year high

CPI inflation has only been below target 10 times since 2006.
CPI inflation has only been below target 10 times since 2006. 
Economists predict the Office for National Statistics (ONS) data will show the consumer prices index (CPI) measure of inflation for May will be held at a 4.5pc - its highest level for more than two years.
Inflation has only been below target 10 times since 2006 and has been above the Bank of England's 2pc target for 17 months in a row.
Inflation jumped from 4pc in April as transport costs rose in response to rising oil prices and increased demand for travel around the Easter holidays and the Royal Wedding.
Although transport costs are thought to have eased in May, this is expected to have been offset by higher food and energy prices.
The unchanged inflation figure will ease the pressure on the Bank of England to raise interest rates from an historic low of 0.5pc, although it still predicts inflation will hit 5pc later this year before falling back towards target by 2013.
The central bank is concerned that if people expect inflation to remain high, they will put more pressure on employers to raise wages, which will in turn lead to higher prices, known as a wage-price spiral. However, in a quarterly bulletin released this week, the Bank reported few signs that inflation expectations have affected price or wage setting behaviour.
Economists do not expect interest rates to rise until November at the earliest.
The CPI figure for May is expected to reflect recent rises in the price of food. Last week, the British Retail Consortium said food inflation hit a 23-month high of 4.9pc in May, up from 4.7pc in April.
Gas and electricity prices are also higher than a year ago after all the 'big six' suppliers put prices up over the winter.
Allan Monks, an economist at JP Morgan Chase, said: "A surge in transport services prices in April prompted a significant upside surprise in inflation last month. But these prices appear set to drop back in May and exert downward pressure on inflation."
Despite this, he expects CPI to be unchanged at 4.5pc as the higher food and energy prices will offset lower transport prices.
The retail prices index measure of inflation, which includes housing costs, is expected to be flat at 5.2pc.
Inflationary pressures are expected to continue to rise in the near future.
Last week, Scottish Power, which serves 2.4 million households, said it will increase average gas and electricity prices by 19pc and 10pc respectively from August 1.
The other 'big six' energy companies are expected to follow suit in response to soaring wholesale energy costs.

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